January rankings update


Updated 1/4/17

Football season is over, which means it’s finally baseball prep and rankings season. With most of the big names off the board and teams’ lineups/rotations coming into focus, things have changed quite a bit since the initial rankings here back in December. Steamer projections have been out for quite some time, and ZiPS projections are slowly rolling out over at Fangraphs. For now, these are based upon a combo of Steamer, xStats, and my own adjustments. Read, ponder, and hit me up with any comments! Meanwhile, the 2017 Big Board is nearly up and running, so stay tuned for updates on that front.

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Triple Slash Converter

More info to come in a forthcoming Fangraphs Community post… You can use the tool below to convert a projected triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) to a fantasy line (HR/R/RBI/SB/AVG).

A few optional things can be used to improve the projected fantasy line…

  • Batting order: Must be an integer between 1 to 9. Determines overall R/RBI as well as distribution of R vs. RBI. If you aren’t sure, the 6th spot is about average production.
  • Team runs: Number of runs you expect the player’s team to score (full season). More team runs means more player R/RBI. If you aren’t sure, 720 is about average.
  • Team SB: Number of bases you expect the player’s team to steal (full season). More team SBs means more player SBs. If you aren’t sure, 85 is about average.
  • SPD: The SPD score for a player is fairly consistent year-to-year (outside of aging effects), and is useful for two reasons: 1) Faster players score more runs 2) SPD predicts SB’s well. If you aren’t sure, 3 or 4 is about average.

HWB is back

Ladies and gents – the ramp up to 2017 draft season has begun! The first Big Board 2017 ranks go live today, and I present them this year with greater swagger than ever, as the reigning champion of the top division of Reddit’s premier-league style “Sultans of Stats“. In the past year, I’ve also graduated from being an underpaid graduate student to an underpaid owner of a PhD and Professor here at Stanford University. I promise you, I won’t let that get in the way of baseball.

The beta version of this year’s board is again a big jump forward from last year, with custom projections well underway. So far only steamer projections are available, and the slow rollout of ZiPS projections has begun over at FanGraphs. Let me know if you have any feature requests and keep an eye on the site as I’ll start rolling out early versions soon.

Draft Week is Here!

… And in order to prep for it, I’m bringing together a sort of ‘Draft Day Survival Guide’ for y’all. First, the Player Valuation series all in one place for easy reading:

Part 1: The Hit-Pitch Split
Part 2: Draft with Tiers
Part 3: Value your Picks
Part 4: Use the Best Projections
Part 5: Target Undervalued Players (IF, OF, P)

Extras for those either using the Big Board or doing some z-scoring of their own include:

BIGz Explained
Download the Big Board
Big Board Tutorial
Big Board Patch Notes

Opening day is nearly here!

Big Board’s Most Undervalued 2016: Pitchers

It’s day three of the Most Undervalued series! I’ve put together a list of the most undervalued players according to the Big Board in each of of the major sites. I’ve done my best to avoid top-end players that are tough to specifically target in drafts, so these should all be guys that you could reasonably plan to draft. Also, I’m not going to be recommending guys like Iglesias that everyone generally agrees is a “sleeper”. Don’t go crazy drafting these guys way earlier than their ADP, but a good approach would be to split the difference between their Big Board rank and their ADP, and aim to draft them around there. That said, let’s get on with it! The pitchers:

Team ESPN   Team CBS   Team Yahoo
SP1 Masahiro Tanaka Chris Sale Jeff Samardzija
SP2 Lance McCullers Wei-yin Chen Patrick Corbin
SP3 Jake Odorizzi Drew Smyly Rubby de la Rosa
RP1 Jason Grilli Cody Allen Will Smith
RP2 Sean Doolittle A.J. Ramos Danny Farquhar

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