Draft Week is Here!

… And in order to prep for it, I’m bringing together a sort of ‘Draft Day Survival Guide’ for y’all. First, the Player Valuation series all in one place for easy reading:

Part 1: The Hit-Pitch Split
Part 2: Draft with Tiers
Part 3: Value your Picks
Part 4: Use the Best Projections
Part 5: Target Undervalued Players (IF, OF, P)

Extras for those either using the Big Board or doing some z-scoring of their own include:

BIGz Explained
Download the Big Board
Big Board Tutorial
Big Board Patch Notes

Opening day is nearly here!

Big Board’s Most Undervalued 2016: Pitchers

It’s day three of the Most Undervalued series! I’ve put together a list of the most undervalued players according to the Big Board in each of of the major sites. I’ve done my best to avoid top-end players that are tough to specifically target in drafts, so these should all be guys that you could reasonably plan to draft. Also, I’m not going to be recommending guys like Iglesias that everyone generally agrees is a “sleeper”. Don’t go crazy drafting these guys way earlier than their ADP, but a good approach would be to split the difference between their Big Board rank and their ADP, and aim to draft them around there. That said, let’s get on with it! The pitchers:

Team ESPN   Team CBS   Team Yahoo
SP1 Masahiro Tanaka Chris Sale Jeff Samardzija
SP2 Lance McCullers Wei-yin Chen Patrick Corbin
SP3 Jake Odorizzi Drew Smyly Rubby de la Rosa
RP1 Jason Grilli Cody Allen Will Smith
RP2 Sean Doolittle A.J. Ramos Danny Farquhar

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Big Board’s Most Undervalued 2016: Outfielders

It’s day two of the Most Undervalued series! I’ve put together a list of the most undervalued players according to the Big Board in each of of the major sites. I’ve done my best to avoid top-end players that are tough to specifically target in drafts, so these should all be guys that you could reasonably plan to draft. Also, I’m not going to be recommending guys like Conforto and Piscotty that everyone generally agrees are “sleepers”. Don’t go crazy drafting these guys way earlier than their ADP, but a good approach would be to split the difference between their Big Board rank and their ADP, and aim to draft them around there. That said, let’s get on with it! Just three outfielders per ‘Team’ today, but I’ll make it up to you with five pitchers per team tomorrow. The outfielders:

Team ESPN   Team CBS   Team Yahoo
OF1 Yasiel Puig Justin Upton Delino Deshields
OF2 Wil Myers Billy Hamilton Christian Yelich
OF3 Gerardo Parra Kevin Pillar Mark Trumbo

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Big Board’s Most Undervalued 2016: Infielders

As we enter Draft Week, it’s time to really get our stuff together and figure out draft plans. To that end, I’ve put together a list of the most undervalued players according to the Big Board in each of of the major sites. I’ve done my best to avoid top-end players that are tough to specifically target in drafts, so these should all be guys that you could reasonably plan to draft. Don’t go crazy drafting them way earlier than their ADP, but a good approach would be to split the difference between their Big Board rank and their ADP, and aim to draft them around there. That said, let’s get on with it! The infielders:

Team ESPN   Team CBS   Team Yahoo
C Nick Hundley Salvador Perez Brian McCann
1B Chris Carter Eric Hosmer Victor Martinez
2B Anthony Rendon Rougned Odor Josh Harrison
SS Marcus Semien Jose Iglesias Ketel Marte
3B Maikel Franco Evan Longoria Kyle Seager

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Player Valuation Tip #5: Target Undervalued Players

Part 1: The Hit-Pitch Split
Part 2: Draft with Tiers
Part 3: Value your Picks
Part 4: Use the Best Projections

As we enter Draft Week, it’s time to really get our stuff together and figure out draft plans. This last player valuation tip is the most obvious, and easiest to do on your own if you have the Big Board at your fingertips – draft undervalued players.

Using the standard ADP’s at the three big sites (ESPN/CBS/Yahoo) and comparing those against the Big Board’s 5×5 ranks for each format, I’ll pick out the most undervalued players at each position over the next few days. First up is infielders, with OF and P coming later this week:

Big Board’s Most Undervalued Infielders
Big Board’s Most Undervalued Outfielders
Big Board’s Most Undervalued Pitchers

Player Valuation Tip #4: Use the Best Projections

Part 1: The Hit-Pitch Split
Part 2: Draft with Tiers
Part 3: Value your Picks

Entering now into part four of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. Evaluating projection systems is well-trodden ground, as documented by Will Larson over at the Baseball Projection Project. This year, I’ve only yet seen analysis of the 2015 projections over at Beyond the Box Score, and in that case it was not a specifically fantasy-focused analysis. Each of the projection systems changes and iterates their methodology year over year, and so we can always stand to learn more by analyzing the most recent year’s results.

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Big Board v1.08: The one with ZiPS

Normally wouldn’t make an individual post for a patch note, but the much-awaited ZiPS projections have been released! They are integrated into today’s new version of the Big Board, so download (or re-download) and get down to business!

For what it’s worth, my recent findings suggest that Steamer was the king of the projection systems last year, but ZiPS may help a bit when integrated into hitter projections. Full analysis coming soon!